{"id":2763,"date":"2018-01-18T16:39:18","date_gmt":"2018-01-18T16:39:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bluelake.thineover.com\/2763.html"},"modified":"2022-11-28T13:31:26","modified_gmt":"2022-11-28T13:31:26","slug":"%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e7%9a%84%e8%87%aa%e6%88%91%e8%ae%a4%e7%9f%a5%e5%92%8c%e5%88%9b%e4%b8%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%b2%99%e6%bc%a0%e5%af%bb%e5%ae%9d-%e5%86%99%e5%9c%a82018%e5%b9%b4%e5%88%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bluelakecap.com\/en\/news\/lakeside-chat\/2763.html","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u6c99\u6f20\u5bfb\u5b9d \u2014\u2014 \u5199\u57282018\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u51e0\u70b9\u611f\u609f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n\n\u8f6c\u773c\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u5e74\u4e86\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u671f\u5f85\u548c\u7126\u8651\u5e76\u5b58\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u81ea\u4ece 2 \u5e74\u524d\u535a\u5ba2\u5199\u4e86\u521b\u4e1a\u8fdb\u5165 Hard \u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7126\u8651\u611f\u4fbf\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6e10\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u60ed\u6127\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u4e5f\u8d8a\u5199\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u505c\u6ede\u4e86\u3002\u8d81\u7740\u65b0\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u575a\u6301\u591a\u5199\u5199\u3002\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cThe problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.\u201d\uff08\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4eba\u6ee1\u6000\u7591\u60d1\uff0c\u800c\u50bb\u74dc\u4eec\u5374\u6ee1\u6000\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\uff09 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u4ece\u96f7.\u8fbe\u91cc\u5965\uff08Ray Dalio\uff09\u7684\u4e66\u300a\u539f\u5219\u300b\uff08Principles\uff09\u91cc\u9762\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u5728\u6865\u6c34\u8054\u5408\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Bridgewater Associates\uff09\u7684\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u770b\u8fc7\u4ed6\u5199\u7684 PDF \u7248\u672c\uff0c\u6709\u70b9\u610f\u72b9\u672a\u5c3d\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u7ec8\u4e8e\u7b49\u6765\u4e86\u5b8c\u6574\u7248\u3002\u4e66\u91cc\u9762\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u6559\u6211\u4eec\u600e\u4e48\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u8ba4\u77e5\u81ea\u6211\uff0c\u5e76\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\u8bbe\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e3a\u4eba\u5904\u4e16\uff0c\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u521b\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\u5e0c\u671b 2018 \u5e74\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u7ee7\u7eed\u5728\u4fee\u70bc\u7684\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\u6709\u6240\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u7126\u8651\u611f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5766\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u8bf4\u4e86\u534a\u5929\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4e5f\u6765\u6362\u4e2a\u9891\u9053\u8c08\u8c08\u521b\u4e1a\u30022018 \u5e74\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f\u84dd\u6e56\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u628a\u7814\u7a76\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u575a\u4fe1\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u73af\u5883\u4f1a\u53d8\u5316\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5feb\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684 10 \u5e74\u4f1a\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff1a\u719f\u6089\u7684\u8d5b\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u53d8\u6210\u521b\u4e1a\u6c99\u6f20\uff0c\u8fb9\u7f18\u7684\u6c99\u6f20\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d8\u6210\u5bcc\u9976\u7684\u91d1\u77ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6c99\u6f20\u5bfb\u5b9d\u2014\u2014\u8ba4\u6e05\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\u6c99\u6f20\u5bfb\u5b9d\uff1f\u4f60\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u7c7b\u521b\u4e1a\u5417\uff1f\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u8bf4\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u5374\u504f\u504f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2007 \u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u505a VC \u8d77\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u542c\u5230\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u548c\u6211\u8bf4\u8d62\u8005\u901a\u5403\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u89c4\u6a21\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\uff0c\u5fc5\u4e00\u7edf\u6c5f\u6e56\u3002\u4e0d\u66fe\u60f3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u524d\u8f88\u4eec\u5439\u4e0b\u7684\u725b\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u90fd\u4e00\u4e00\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0b\u56fe\u662f\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\uff08BCG\uff09\u5728 2017 \u5e74\u4e00\u7bc7\u62a5\u544a\u91cc\u9762\u7684\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u7ec6\u5206\u8d5b\u9053\u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u524d\u4e09\u540d\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5360\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u8d5b\u9053\uff0c\u524d\u4e09\u540d\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5360\u6709\u4e86 85%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9664\u975e\u662f\u98a0\u8986\u5f0f\u7684\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\u6295\u8d44\u4ef7\u503c\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u96f6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u5355\u5305\u62ec\u7535\u5b50\u5546\u52a1\u3001\u5728\u7ebf\u65c5\u6e38\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u672c\u5730\u751f\u6d3b\u670d\u52a1\u7b49\u3002\u800c CR3\uff08\u5e02\u573a\u524d\u4e09\u540d\u5360\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\uff09\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u51e0\u5e74\u5374\u98ce\u751f\u6c34\u8d77\uff0c\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u6279\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff1a\u65b0\u95fb\uff08\u4eca\u65e5\u5934\u6761\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u7ebf\u89c6\u9891\uff08\u5feb\u624b\uff09\uff0c\u975e\u652f\u4ed8\u7c7b\u5728\u7ebf\u91d1\u878d\uff08\u6570\u6570 2017 \u5e74\u7684\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f \u5f88\u4e0d\u5e78\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5403\u8001\u672c\u4e86\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u719f\u6089\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6254\u6389\u4e00\u5927\u534a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u4eba\u8109\u90fd\u8981\u91cd\u5934\u6765\u8fc7\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u624d\u662f\u6c38\u6052\u7684\u5236\u80dc\u6cd5\u5b9d\u3002\u524d\u9762\u7684\u5927\u897f\u90e8\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u6c99\u6f20\u8fd8\u662f\u91d1\u77ff\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8010\u5fc3\u5730\u63a2\u5bfb\u3002\u5e78\u597d\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u4f19\u4eba\u90fd\u66fe\u7ecf\u662f\u54a8\u8be2\u987e\u95ee\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u96be\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2018 \u5e74\uff0c\u795d\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u6398\u91d1\u7684\u94f2\u5b50\u548c\u5bcc\u9976\u7684\u91d1\u77ff\uff01<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u8f6c\u773c\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u5e74\u4e86\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u671f\u5f85\u548c\u7126\u8651\u5e76\u5b58\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u81ea\u4ece 2 \u5e74\u524d\u535a\u5ba2\u5199\u4e86\u521b\u4e1a\u8fdb\u5165 Hard \u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7126\u8651\u611f\u4fbf\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6e10\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u60ed\u6127\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u4e5f\u8d8a\u5199\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u505c\u6ede\u4e86\u3002\u8d81\u7740\u65b0\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u575a\u6301\u591a\u5199\u5199\u3002 \u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u8ba4\u77e5\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u4e66\u91cc\u548c\u8eab\u8fb9\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u542f\u53d1 \u201cThe problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.\u201d\uff08\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4eba\u6ee1\u6000\u7591\u60d1\uff0c\u800c\u50bb\u74dc\u4eec\u5374\u6ee1\u6000\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\uff09 \u8fd9\u662f\u4ece\u4e00\u4f4d\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u770b\u5230\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e5f\u57fa\u672c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u65e9\u671f\u521b\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u7ea0\u7ed3\u548c\u7126\u8651\u6240\u5728\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u806a\u660e\u548c\u50bb\u5c31\u5012\u4e86\u8fc7\u6765\u3002\u9519\u8fc7\u7684\u4eba\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u50bb\u74dc\uff0c\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u50bb\u74dc\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u5e08\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u56f0\u6270\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u8981\u505a\u806a\u660e\u4eba\u8fd8\u662f\u50bb\u74dc\uff1f \u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u4ece\u96f7.\u8fbe\u91cc\u5965\uff08Ray Dalio\uff09\u7684\u4e66\u300a\u539f\u5219\u300b\uff08Principles\uff09\u91cc\u9762\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u5728\u6865\u6c34\u8054\u5408\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Bridgewater Associates\uff09\u7684\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u770b\u8fc7\u4ed6\u5199\u7684 PDF \u7248\u672c\uff0c\u6709\u70b9\u610f\u72b9\u672a\u5c3d\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u7ec8\u4e8e\u7b49\u6765\u4e86\u5b8c\u6574\u7248\u3002\u4e66\u91cc\u9762\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u6559\u6211\u4eec\u600e\u4e48\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u8ba4\u77e5\u81ea\u6211\uff0c\u5e76\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\u8bbe\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e3a\u4eba\u5904\u4e16\uff0c\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u521b\u4e1a\u3002 \u73af\u987e\u56db\u5468\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u548c\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u5171\u540c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u81ea\u6211\u548c\u73af\u5883\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e14\u8bda\u5b9e\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u5236\u5b9a\u4e00\u5957\u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7684\u6253\u6cd5\u3002\u66fe\u7ecf\u6709\u5e78\u5171\u4eab\u4e00\u4e2a\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7684\u9ad8\u6bc5\u8d44\u4ea7\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98\u9093\u6653\u5cf0\u5148\u751f\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u300b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c06\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u4ed6\u4e00\u518d\u5f3a\u8c03\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u9996\u5148\u8981\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u9002\u5408\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u505a\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8eab\u8fb9\u548c\u884c\u4e1a\u5185\u4e0d\u4e4f\u5149\u8f89\u7684\u699c\u6837\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u575a\u6301\u505a\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff08\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff09\u7684\u9ad8\u74f4\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u5f20\u201c\u5f31\u6c34\u4e09\u5343\uff0c\u4f46\u53d6\u4e00\u74e2\u201d\uff1bUnion Square Ventures \u4ece 2004 \u5e74\u521b\u7acb\u4e4b\u521d\u5c31\u575a\u6301\u6295\u8d44\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u7b49\u7b49\u3002 \u4f46\u201c\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u505a\u6295\u8d44\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u5374\u65e0\u6cd5\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u62ff\u6765\u7167\u642c\u3002 \u501f\u7528\u9093\u6653\u5cf0\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u548c\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u7ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5404\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u6211\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4e00\u9875 PPT\uff0c\u65f6\u4e0d\u65f6\u8fd8\u4f1a\u62ff\u51fa\u6765\u770b\u770b\uff0c\u53cd\u601d\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4fdd\u6301\u5bf9\u201c\u6211\u662f\u8c01\uff0c\u6211\u64c5\u957f\u4ec0\u4e48\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u656c\u754f\u611f\uff0c\u5e76\u6301\u7eed\u5730\u505a\u51fa\u4fee\u6b63\u3002 \u5e0c\u671b 2018 \u5e74\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u7ee7\u7eed\u5728\u4fee\u70bc\u7684\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\u6709\u6240\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u7126\u8651\u611f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5766\u7136\u3002 \u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u8bf4\u4e86\u534a\u5929\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4e5f\u6765\u6362\u4e2a\u9891\u9053\u8c08\u8c08\u521b\u4e1a\u30022018 \u5e74\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f\u84dd\u6e56\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u628a\u7814\u7a76\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u575a\u4fe1\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u73af\u5883\u4f1a\u53d8\u5316\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5feb\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684 10 \u5e74\u4f1a\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff1a\u719f\u6089\u7684\u8d5b\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u53d8\u6210\u521b\u4e1a\u6c99\u6f20\uff0c\u8fb9\u7f18\u7684\u6c99\u6f20\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d8\u6210\u5bcc\u9976\u7684\u91d1\u77ff\u3002 \u6c99\u6f20\u5bfb\u5b9d\u2014\u2014\u8ba4\u6e05\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e \u6c99\u6f20\u5bfb\u5b9d\uff1f\u4f60\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u7c7b\u521b\u4e1a\u5417\uff1f\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u8bf4\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u5374\u504f\u504f\u5982\u6b64\u3002 2007 \u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u505a VC […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lakeside-chat"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u6c99\u6f20\u5bfb\u5b9d \u2014\u2014 \u5199\u57282018\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u51e0\u70b9\u611f\u609f - \u84dd\u6e56\u8d44\u672c<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bluelakecap.com\/en\/news\/lakeside-chat\/2763.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u6c99\u6f20\u5bfb\u5b9d \u2014\u2014 \u5199\u57282018\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u51e0\u70b9\u611f\u609f - \u84dd\u6e56\u8d44\u672c\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u8f6c\u773c\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u5e74\u4e86\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u671f\u5f85\u548c\u7126\u8651\u5e76\u5b58\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u81ea\u4ece 2 \u5e74\u524d\u535a\u5ba2\u5199\u4e86\u521b\u4e1a\u8fdb\u5165 Hard \u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7126\u8651\u611f\u4fbf\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6e10\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u60ed\u6127\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u4e5f\u8d8a\u5199\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u505c\u6ede\u4e86\u3002\u8d81\u7740\u65b0\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u575a\u6301\u591a\u5199\u5199\u3002 \u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u8ba4\u77e5\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u4e66\u91cc\u548c\u8eab\u8fb9\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u542f\u53d1 \u201cThe problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.\u201d\uff08\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4eba\u6ee1\u6000\u7591\u60d1\uff0c\u800c\u50bb\u74dc\u4eec\u5374\u6ee1\u6000\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\uff09 \u8fd9\u662f\u4ece\u4e00\u4f4d\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u770b\u5230\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e5f\u57fa\u672c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u65e9\u671f\u521b\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u7ea0\u7ed3\u548c\u7126\u8651\u6240\u5728\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u806a\u660e\u548c\u50bb\u5c31\u5012\u4e86\u8fc7\u6765\u3002\u9519\u8fc7\u7684\u4eba\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u50bb\u74dc\uff0c\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u50bb\u74dc\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u5e08\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u56f0\u6270\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u8981\u505a\u806a\u660e\u4eba\u8fd8\u662f\u50bb\u74dc\uff1f \u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u4ece\u96f7.\u8fbe\u91cc\u5965\uff08Ray Dalio\uff09\u7684\u4e66\u300a\u539f\u5219\u300b\uff08Principles\uff09\u91cc\u9762\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u5728\u6865\u6c34\u8054\u5408\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Bridgewater Associates\uff09\u7684\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u770b\u8fc7\u4ed6\u5199\u7684 PDF \u7248\u672c\uff0c\u6709\u70b9\u610f\u72b9\u672a\u5c3d\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u7ec8\u4e8e\u7b49\u6765\u4e86\u5b8c\u6574\u7248\u3002\u4e66\u91cc\u9762\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u6559\u6211\u4eec\u600e\u4e48\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u8ba4\u77e5\u81ea\u6211\uff0c\u5e76\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\u8bbe\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e3a\u4eba\u5904\u4e16\uff0c\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u521b\u4e1a\u3002 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